NBA Betting Strategies and Systems and how bookies reduce risk.

July 23, 2023

In the NBA betting scene, the pros know that having the right strategies can be the game-changer between making bank and losing it all. We have compiled a list of NBA sports betting systems that have proven to be commonly used by serious sports betting players. However, using such NBA betting strategies doesn't guarantee profit without a careful study of the game.

On the other side of the equation, local bookies using our pay-per-head software can take advantage of the plethora of tools at their disposal to either allow or disallow different combinations on which these sports betting systems rely. Keep reading this article to explore all the options available.

The First Hop NBA Betting System

The first NBA sports betting strategy we will cover is known as "The First Hop System." We got to give credit to Kevin , from the Kev's Picks youtube channel.

This betting system focuses on road favorites who recently faced a loss. The initial idea was to bet on these favorites during the first half of the game. Unfortunately, it didn't quite hit the jackpot, only managing a 49% success rate and falling short of being profitable.

Then a brilliant tweak was done to the basketball betting system. Instead of merely choosing road favorites after a regular loss, the system was narrowed down to those who experienced a blowout loss. And guess what? The results skyrocketed! The NBA betting system's success rate jumped up to a jaw-dropping 56.3%, and the return on investment (ROI) shot up to an impressive 9.1%. Now we're talking!

Players looking for a promising NBA sports betting strategy keep their eyes on those road favorites who've suffered defeats of fifteen points or more during the first half. This could be an opportunity to some seriously compelling and potentially lucrative bets for them.

When it comes to your payperhead sportsbook and limiting certain games, even though there is currently no way to restrict a game based on those two criteria (Road favorite + Recently faced a loss), there are a few ways to change the limit on a given sports betting game matchup.

Navigate to the "Game Admin" screen, where you will find a display showing all current and upcoming matchups. While this sportsbook screen is primarily designed to adjust the betting lines your sportsbook currently offers, it also allows you to set custom betting limits on specific games.

Click on the "circle" label. The "Circle Game Limits" screen will appear, allowing you to set a different limit for the selected game matchup.

NBA Betting Strategies and circled limits on payperhead sportsbook platform
Clicking the Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets will bring the Circle game limits screen

The Betting on Home Underdogs of 10 Points or More- NBA betting strategies

The second of these NBA betting strategies focuses on betting on home underdogs of 10 points or more. At first glance, this basketball betting strategy showed a 51.8% success rate and a modest 0.8% ROI, hardly enough to make it profitable.

However, as Kevin explains, by introducing a crucial tweak and filtering teams receiving 30% or fewer of the public's action, the system's success rate dramatically improved to 56.5%, accompanied by a substantial 10.54% ROI. This emphasized the potential profitability of double-digit home underdogs when they receive little support from the betting public.

When dealing with heavy underdogs or favorite lines using our payperhead sportsbook software, you have the option to automatically set the system to hide moneylines that exceed a specified threshold.

For instance, if you prefer not to offer the moneyline for the Coastal Carolina vs. Furman game due to Furman being a heavy favorite (resulting in Carolina being a significant underdog by more than 10 points), you can adjust the settings. Although our default practice is to typically not offer moneylines for heavy favorites (with a threshold set at 12 points and above), in this case, you can remove the line by applying the following setup:

max moneyline payperhead sportsbook to deal with nba betting strategies

When working from the payperhead sportsbook backend, follow these steps to navigate to the "vig setup screen" and remove the moneyline for the Coastal Carolina vs. Furman game in the NCAA Basketball league:

  1. Access the "vig setup screen" from the backend.
  2. Locate the league settings for NCAA Basketball.
  3. Identify the Coastal Carolina vs. Furman game within the league.
  4. Since the line is Furman -700, enter a value of -699 in the setup. This adjustment ensures that every line exceeding 699 will be removed.

By applying this setup, you effectively eliminate moneylines for games where the favorite's line is higher than -699.

hide moneyline backend payperhead sportsbook to cope with nba basketball betting systems

With the applied adjustment of entering -699 in the "vig setup screen" for the NCAA Basketball league, players will no longer see the moneyline for the Coastal Carolina vs. Furman game or any other game where the moneyline exceeds 699. This modification ensures that lines with moneylines higher than -699 are removed from the view for the specified games.

hide moneyline after payperhead sportsbook to reduce risk against NBA Betting Strategies.

The Home Underdogs with at Least One Day Off Between Games - basketball betting system

Another of these basketball betting strategies consists in placing wagers on the home underdogs who have enjoyed at least one day off between games.

When these underdogs faced a team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the nba betting system's success rate was 49.4%, making it not profitable.

Despite this, the idea still holds merit when it incorporates factors that could potentially influence the outcome of a game. With further research and adjustments, this basketball betting system might show new opportunities for bettors seeking an edge:

Imagine an NBA matchup between the Chicago Bulls and the Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls, known as the underdogs, were coming off a well-deserved one-day rest, giving them an advantage in terms of rest and preparation.

On the other hand, the Brooklyn Nets were in a more challenging situation. They had just played a tough game the previous night, leaving them fatigued for this back-to-back encounter.

Taking these additional factors into account, the hit ratio of the betting strategy climbs over the 50% threshold, making it a profitable strategy for serious sports bettors.

How can local bookies using a pay-per-head sportsbook software cope with this?

We have already shown the "circled" limits screen, which can be applied to specific games. However, as anyone with even the slightest experience in sports betting knows, the second-most common way to place bets, outside straight bets, is through parlay tickets. Let's see how our pay-per-head sportsbook platform allows local bookies to limit the underdogs allowed on parlays:

First, navigate to the "customer admin" screen, click on the player for whom you want to limit the account, and then click the options menu (the nine squares in the top-right corner).

parlay settings intro payperhead service to protect from nba betting strategies.

The first option allows you to set the maximum number of underdogs allowed on any parlay size:

max underdogs parlays payperhead software against nba basketball betting

The second option allows you to be more precise on the number of underdogs you decide to allow on your parlays. These can be chosen by size:

max underdogs per parlay size payperhead software against nba betting strategy
This is currently a work-in-progress feature. If the front-end option doesn't work for you, please contact our customer service office to have these setup done for you from our backend.

The Third Game in Five Days Over-Under Play- nba betting strategies

The fourth basketball betting system involves an over-under play that examines two teams playing their third game within five days. Initially, this basketball betting system had a 49.3% success rate, making it non-profitable. However, by recognizing that fatigued teams might play less defense and focusing on the over, this basketball over under system's success rate significantly increased to an impressive 58.8%, boasting a 14.2% ROI.

This basketball over under system over under system is all about understanding team fatigue and how it can mess with the scoring game. Smart bettors can spot these situations and cash in on the action. Betting on the over when teams are exhausted can totally pay off, 'cause let's be real, tired players might not keep up that strong defense.

Remember, successful sports betting involves staying informed about team dynamics and recognizing patterns that can lead to profitable bets. The "Third Game in Five Days Over-Under Play" system is a valuable reminder that in the NBA, fatigue can play a significant role in shaping the outcome of games and betting opportunities. So, keep an eye on those tired teams and their potential to light up the scoreboard!

Looking at this NBA betting strategy from the local bookie's eye, there are at least a couple of ways to limit the amount taken on the totals bet type.

If you want to apply the wager limit on a specific game, use the aforementioned "Game Admin" screen. Simply set the new wager limit on the "total" field and leave the rest empty. Optionally, decide if you want to allow the selected game to be included as part of a parlay.

limiting total bets payperhead bookie software against NBA Betting Strategies.

Yet another way local bookies using our payperhead sportsbook service can limit totals is by using the "early limits" feature, and setting the hours to zero.

To access this feature click the "Customer Admin" screen, navigate the player for which you want to apply the wager limit, and then to the "Risk management" screen.

at this moment the only way to apply this setting in bulk (to all of your players) is through our backend. Simply contact us and we will apply the limit for you.

limiting total bets with early limits payperhead bookie services against NBA Betting Strategies

The Road Underdogs of 10 Points or More in Conference Games - betting system

The next among these nba betting strategies centers on road underdogs of 10 points or more in conference games, particularly those not receiving strong support from the betting public (less than 35% of bets). This basketball betting strategy exhibited a noteworthy 58.5% success rate and an 8.1% ROI, making it a strong contender for a winning among these nba basketball betting strategies. While this system may not frequently present opportunities, it offers a potential goldmine when suitable conditions align.

Imagine an NBA match between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Memphis Grizzlies. The Lakers, being the favorites, were expected to dominate with a 10-point advantage. However, the betting public seemed to be leaning heavily towards the Lakers, with only 30% of bets placed on the underdog Grizzlies.

The odds were stacked against the Grizzlies, but this was precisely the kind of situation that the "Road Underdogs"nba betting strategy targets. While the public might have been skeptical, savvy bettors recognized an opportunity.

The game kicked off with both teams fiercely competing. Surprisingly, the Grizzlies displayed exceptional performance and kept pace with the Lakers throughout the first half. By halftime, the Lakers held a narrow lead of 56-53, falling short of their expected 10-point advantage.

As the game progressed, the Lakers struggled to widen the gap, and the Grizzlies continued to put up a remarkable fight. By the final buzzer, the Grizzlies managed to secure a stunning upset victory, defeating the Lakers with a score of 113-110.

Bettors who followed the "Road Underdogs" previously listed among these nba betting strategies and wagered on the Memphis Grizzlies cashed in big time. Not only did they enjoy the thrill of cheering for the underdog, but they also reaped substantial profits. With a success rate of 58.5% and an impressive 8.1% ROI, this nba betting system proved its worth yet again.

While this basketball betting system may not present opportunities as frequently as some other strategies, it shines brightly when suitable conditions align. It's essential for sports bettors to keep an eye on conference games where road underdogs are facing a 10-point deficit or more, and public support for the underdog is relatively low.

The High Totals NBA Betting strategy

The High Totals System it's the brainchild of Allen Moody, a sports-betting pro who wrote the books "Becoming a Winning Gambler" and "Sports Betting Basics." This basketball betting strategy is as easy as pie to learn and use, so no sweat!

Here's the deal: Moody noticed something pretty cool. Sportsbooks have this tendency to lowball game totals for NBA non-conference matchups. So, he came up with a nifty plan—every time there's an over/under of 220 total points, he goes for the over, no questions asked. Simple, right? And guess what? It's been paying off like crazy! He was right on the money a whopping 63.5% of the time for all those games from 2004 to 2009.

Now, I know you're wondering if that kind of deal is still going strong today. Well, you're in luck! Back in the day, high-scoring games were rare, but things have changed. Teams these days are all about that fast pace and three-pointers galore. The average NBA score per game in 2004 was 97.2 points. Fast forward to 2009, it bumped up to 100.0, and in 2016, it hit a whopping 105.6! Crazy, right?

Sure, sportsbooks have caught on to this trend, but don't lose hope just yet! There's still some serious value to be snatched by betting the over in games with sky-high total-point projections. So, keep your eyes peeled for those opportunities and let's ride the wave to some big wins!

Tunnel Basketball Betting System - NBA Betting Strategies

This slick nba betting system works wonders because different sportsbooks often offer different game totals with the same odds on the spread.

Picture this: The player got the Hawks vs. Rockets game, right? One sportsbook sets the total at 216 points, while another goes with 213 points. Both have the Rockets as nine-point favorites.

Now, here's where the magic happens. With the Tunnel NBA Betting System, you place two bets—one at each sportsbook. You go for the over (213) at one place and the under (216) at the other. Sneaky, huh? If the combined final score lands between 214 and 215, the bettor hits the jackpot and win both bets! But even if it falls outside that "tunnel," the bettor still scores a win on one of his bets.

Gotta be real though, winning just one of the two bets might leave him with a tiny net loss. We're usually dealing with -110 odds on both wagers. So, to really cash in with this NBA basketball betting system, he gotta snag that double win around 10% of the time. But hey, no sweat! Since the "tunnel" is the most likely outcome, there's some serious potential for profit here.

Now, here comes the homework part: the player needs to do some digging. He might spot small differences in NBA betting sites, but rarely more than two points. But hey, if he comes across one, don't hesitate for a second!

Betting Against the Public NBA Betting Strategy

Alright, here's the lowdown on "Betting Against the Public." It's all about going against the flow and fading the public opinion. When loads of money start pouring in on one side of the line, those crafty sportsbooks adjust the line to balance things out. And guess what? This creates golden opportunities for serious bettors to grab some sweet improved lines that work in their favor.

So, picture this: If everyone and their grandma are all gung-ho about Team A, the player would do the opposite if he wants to fade the public. Going against the public can be a real game-changer, and just by embracing this instinct, the bettor would be sniffing out those juicy inflated lines left and right.

Now, we gotta drop a tip on this— bettors should not go overboard with it. Sure, it's awesome to have the guts and skill to go the other way when it's the right move, but they gotta be smart about it and check if it's truly the right play to apply this tecnique among the other nba betting strategies.

See, it's not just about finding where the public's money is and taking the opposite side. Nah, they gotta be a bit more clever than that. Combine their against-the-grain plays with some other factors. Look out for inflated lines and keep an eye on scheduling trends. They would be leveling up their betting game right here!

So, remember, it's time to be the betting maverick and go against the crowd when it makes sense. But always do it with a touch of strategy and extra know-how.

Stay Sharp: Check Injury Reports and Rest Status NBA Betting Strategy

Let's talk about avoiding those heartbreaking losses. The ones where the team's star player suddenly sits out, and the bettor is left feeling like a total chump for not seeing it coming? Yeah, we've all been there, and it stings big time!

But guess what? There's a super easy way to save yourself from that misery—stay on top of those injury updates! Seriously, it's like having a secret weapon to boost the betting game.

These days, load management is all the rage, and players sitting out is becoming more common than ever. And let me tell you, it's like a black hole for the player's bankroll. So this NBA betting strategy is all about staying up-to-date with all the latest news before placing your bets.

But it's not just about who's in or out of the game. Gotta know the nitty-gritty details about injuries and minute restrictions. Those things can totally mess with a player's performance, and you don't wanna get caught off guard. This factor is the most important when it comes to this strategy among the other nba betting strategies.

Now, here's the kicker—often, injury news pops up real close to game time. Like, sometimes just minutes before tip-off! So, for this basketball betting system to work, players gotta be quick on their toes and keep their ears to the ground till the very last minute. And hey, here's an additional pro tip: try to place the bets as close to tip-off as possible. That way, you're making decisions based on the freshest info.

You know what sets the sharks apart from the fish in the betting world? Being on top of the facts! When news breaks, the sharks pounce on the opportunity before the books even adjust the lines. But the fish? They either miss out or get eaten alive.

This is another reason why choosing a serious and capable payperhead sportsbook service provider is crucial. At, we have an in-house team of lines managers who carefully monitor every game for injuries or any other factor that may cause a shift in the betting line. Additionally, we follow various other sportsbooks, so when they adjust their lines, we notice it and internally decide whether the line should be altered on our end.

As a local bookie using our pay-per-head bookie service, rest assured that you are offering the sharpest lines to your players.

Spotting the Sneaky Shaded Lines NBA Betting Strategy

Alright, let's dive into a little something called "line shading." It's a sneaky move that bookmakers pull when they expect a ton of betting action on one side of a matchup. You know how it goes—when everyone's talking about a hot team like the Boston Celtics, the public starts jumping on the bandwagon.

Next the other NBA betting strategies, this one is all about the sportsbook lines. To balance things out and not get overwhelmed with one-sided bets, the sportsbooks slyly adjust the opening line in favor of that popular team. So, let's say the Celtics were supposed to be a (-9) favorite, they might end up being listed at (-11) instead. Tricky, right?

But here's the secret sauce for smart bettors when it comes to this basketball betting strategy. When they see those shaded lines, it's time to make a move and go against the flow. Betting on the underdog with those extra points (+11) can be a real value play. See, both the books and the experienced bettors know that the line has been swung to make it harder for the Celtics to cover the spread.

But, hold up! There's a catch with these kinds of opportunities. They're based on short-term perceptions, so you can't plan for 'em ahead of time. Nope, the only way to sniff them out is to stay in the loop with all the NBA news and events.

It's like playing detective, you know? We gotta figure out if the book is trying to steer us toward or away from a certain side. And guess what? Staying informed is the secret weapon! So, for this NBA betting system to work players need to keep their eyes peeled, stay sharp, and let's find those shaded lines to bag some sweet wins!


Navigating the world of NBA betting can be a challenging yet rewarding endeavor. By analyzing and implementing well-constructed NBA basketball betting systems, bettors can enhance their chances of success and achieve profitable outcomes. Each of the NBA betting strategies explored in this article offers valuable insights into the dynamics of NBA betting and serves as a solid foundation for building comprehensive basketball betting strategies.

On the other side of the coin, local bookies using our payperhead sportsbook solution can take advantage of the settings, limits, and other tools to reduce their sportsbook's exposure and management bankroll efficiently.

As with any form of betting, responsible gambling practices should always be followed, and a combination of research, analysis, and understanding of the sport will pave the way to becoming a successful NBA bettor or a profitable local sports bookie.

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