Spotting "lucky" winners and keeping your sanity
When you assess your player's performance and notice that they have achieved a positive net balance for a specific week, it's natural to feel concerned. You might even consider dropping the player altogether.
However, it's important to remember that every player can have a few successful weeks, and this doesn't necessarily indicate long-term unfavorable outcomes for your sportsbook.
In this post, we will demonstrate how delving deeper into the player's statistics can unveil their true skill level.
Let's begin by examining your players' performance last week. To accomplish this, the most convenient method is to review your weekly balances report. As a pay per head sportsbook or bookie software, understanding these insights can help optimize your pay per head software and price per head sportsbook operations.
(The column "week tlt" stands for "week totals". It adds all days of the week and shows the net balance for the given player.)
A bar graph clearly shows which players did best and worst:
(notice that this graph doesn't include credit adjustments entered manually. So you may notice a slight difference in the numbers compared to the weekly balances screen shows above; nevertheless, we can spot, both on the report and on this bar chart, that there were two players that ended with a net balance of over $1000 this week.)
Let's further inspect the top performers. In this case the usernames player135 and player5691
Looking at player135's wager types, we see he plays mostly moneylines (25 tickets this week), then parlays with 8 tickets , and finally a single ticket on the spread.
Ok. We now know he plays mostly on money lines (over 73% of his plays actually), but how good has he performed on each of those wager types?
By looking at the net amount it looks like he is a pretty solid money line player. He won over $3000 and lost around $1800.
It seems like he made most of his profit on money lines. But when we look at the count of those tickets we see something that may surprise you:
We now see that, when it comes to money line tickets, this player lost more times than he won!
Yes. He did make a profit, but he is not as sharp as we thought him to be at first glance. These is a glimpse of the things the data gathered via PPHSportsbook.net's pay per head sportsbook can generate and help you with.
Let's take a closer look at the risk amount of the tickets he placed on the money line.
Interesting: most of the risk amounts were below $500, and only on two tickets (both of them winners) he risked big. $1500 and around $2600, respectively.
Now, we know that this player beat the sportsbook this week by +$1432.05 (we saw this on the first bar chart). ¿Were those two outlier tickets responsible for that win? Let's use the data through the pay per head sportsbook to take a closer look at these two tickets.
Let's graph the risk amount vs the win amount to see how much of the difference those two tickets caused to his net balance.
The two circles with the red outline show the tickets in question.
The ticket risking $2600 paid out around $250, that's not much. However, the ticket that risked $1500 payout was over $1750. That definitely shook the boat (or should I say, the book.)
So in conclusion, only these two outlier tickets paid out over $2000, and considering this player's net balance on this week was of +$1432.0, we can conclude that if it wouldn’t be for those two tickets he would've finished with a balance of -$568.
Not sharp at all.
The point of all of this is that not all players that end up with a positive week (beat the sportsbook) are sharp players, and more importantly, having a healthy bankroll as a bookie using a pay per head sports betting software, or even a healthy lineup of players from which you can take to pay out the "lucky" winners of the week, pays out at the end (no pun intended).
Now that we know this player took a smart decision on betting big on a play, and that made the difference between ending with a positive or negative balance, what could you, if you were the bookie with the tools provided by the pay per head sportsbook software, have done?
As we saw on the last graph, most of this player's tickets are for less than $500, so you could’ve simply limit his max wager amount to $500 and that would've prevented the big ticket winners.
You can even take this idea to the next level and limit your player(s) per sport, league, or even wager type (spread, moneyline, total, team total, etc).
Access this option is available by clicking the “max wager” tab, located under the “customer admin” screen. (this screen is accessible on the homepage, right after logging into the pay per head sportsbook)
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